Most refinery margins turn negative by 2050 under the scenario
Oil prices to crash in 2°C world – Wood Mackenzie
Mass electrification of the transport sector will lead to dramatically falling levels of oil demand
Brent oil prices will fall to $40/bl by 2030 and below $18/bl by 2050 if the goals of the Paris Agreement are met, according to a new scenario released by consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Under the scenario—called the Accelerated Energy Transition (AET)—the transport network is rapidly electrified; the power sector is largely decarbonised; carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) locks away 5bn t CO₂ by 2050; and 380mn t/yr of low-carbon hydrogen is produced by the same date. As a result, oil demand begins to drop rapidly after 2023, falling from 96mn bl/d currently to 35mn bl/d by 2050. 47pc – Energy demand met by electricity in 2050 Gas demand remains resilient at current levels o
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