To drill or not to drill
Producers’ view of the future may run the risk of complacency
The message sent to the fossil fuel industries by BP’s annual Energy Outlook—one of the world’s most respected sources of information on the future of energy—was, once again, a reassuring one. Under its ‘Evolving Transition’ (ET) scenario, demand for fossil fuels would remain robust out to 2040. Oil demand goes up a bit, gas a lot more and coal falls a bit. This is comforting for oil firms, particularly for the many which are transitioning to predominantly gas firms. It is not news to coal producers, who are already finding new capital difficult to acquire. It would mean CO2 emissions are still rising by 2040. The ET scenario assumes “government policies, technology and social preferences co
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