2050 scenarios vary on policy unknowns

Demand for low-carbon hydrogen in 2050 could be anywhere between 300mn t/yr and over 800mn t/yr depending on penetration into key sectors after 2030

Demand for low-carbon hydrogen in 2050 could be anywhere between 300mn t/yr and over 800mn t/yr, according to an analysis of various different organisations’ modelling and scenarios by Hydrogen Economist. Estimates for hydrogen’s share of total global energy use range between 5pc and 20pc. The wide range of projections is a result of uncertainties around future policy, sectoral strategies and the degree to which countries are able to achieve their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. Much of the uncertainty around the models’ projections comes in after 2030. Of the three main scenarios analysed by Hydrogen Economist—those of risk management group DNV, think tank