Oil price weakness set to curb large-scale M&A

Companies will continue shifting more towards gas, where the outlook is stronger

Lower oil prices next year are likely to sap appetite for aggressive M&A expansion in the hydrocarbons industry, although rapid growth in gas demand will encourage companies to pursue growth there. This year has seen a resurgence in M&A after several subdued years, but if the narrative of persistently weaker oil prices in 2026 becomes reality, this dynamic will weigh on valuations and investment ambitions. There is a credible case that points to supply outstripping demand in 2026 as OPEC+ unwinds its production cuts and non-OPEC output continues to rise, particularly across the Americas. That imbalance could push Brent prices down into the mid-$50s/bl, compared with averages of $70–8