Australia’s gas-led recovery dream faces supply wake-up

Canberra’s flagship post-Covid energy policy faces headwinds from a looming supply shortfall

Australia’s southern states could see a supply shortfall of up to 30PJ (equivalent to 2.2mn m³/d) as soon as 2024, according to the most recent Gas Inquiry 2017-2025 interim report from competition watchdog the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). The commission also warns the government’s expanded heads of agreement (HoA) with LNG exporters—which ensures that uncontracted gas must first be offered to domestic buyers on “competitive market terms”—is unlikely to be enough to bridge that gap. Indeed, while noting a decline in wholesale gas prices over the past year, the ACCC says the country needs to build import capacity if it wishes to avoid a price spike that will hurt loc