Qatar prepares for another year under blockade

Intra-GCC tensions will continue under the cloud of Saudi-Iran hostility

For the five members of the GCC excluding Saudi Arabia, 2019 will be dominated by the machinations of Riyadh and Tehran, the two giant competitors for regional dominance. While a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is unlikely, the possibility cannot be totally excluded. Any conflict would result, at very least, in a sizeable spike in oil prices. About 18mn bl/d of crude oil and almost 4mn bl/d of refined products pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are entirely dependent on the strait for their exports. The question is how prolonged any spike would prove to be. As Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to talk tough, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the UAE can do little more