Falling margins, rising maintenance
A busy season of refinery turnarounds is about to weaken crude demand, again
Refining margins are weakening, inventories are brimming and, to make things worse, this year's maintenance season looks like it will be especially busy. All things being equal, it means the crude oil glut has some way to go in the first half of the year. Global refinery runs are already on their way down. They fell by 1.3m barrels a day in January, down to 79.8m b/d, according to the International Energy Agency, buckling under the pressure of lower margins and the onset of seasonal maintenance in the US. In February, runs will likely remain flat, but fall again, by 0.6m b/d, in March, the agency says. Global crude stocks are expected to rise, testing inventory tank tops. In the US, crude st
Also in this section
5 March 2026
Gas is a central pillar of Colombia’s energy system, but declining production poses a significant challenge, and LNG will be increasingly needed as a stopgap. A recent major offshore gas discovery offers hope, but policy improvements are also required, Camilo Morales, secretary general of Naturgas, the Colombian gas association, tells Petroleum Economist
4 March 2026
The continent’s inventories were already depleted before conflict erupted in the Middle East, causing prices to spike ahead of the crucial summer refilling season
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
