Opec pins hopes on China's cars and shale's failure

The producers' group has released its latest oil outlook. And, as Derek Brower reports, the cartel has based some of its predictions on the unknown

Can you predict what kind of engine will power the average Chinese vehicle in 2035? No, nor can most people. Opec, though, must have a good idea. Its latest annual World Oil Outlook  plots a rosy future for oil demand over the next 22 years, as population growth, urbanisation and the rise of developing economies lift consumption from 88.9 million barrels a day (b/d) last year to 108.5m b/d in 2035 (see table below). But the most startling source of the growth will, apparently, come from Chinese drivers. By 2035, Opec thinks there will be 442m cars on China's roads, far greater even than the number in OECD America (344m). It's enough to make any purveyor of oil - and especially the Opec expor