Known unknowns
Opec's efforts to cut supply will be the main theme of 2017 and prices will rise. But the outlook is still fraught with risk and uncertainty
Oil prices will rise in 2017. But, failing a supply-side shock or deeper-than-expected cuts from Opec, $60 a barrel will be the upper limit. Before that level is reached, bears still pose a threat too. And that price will be the rough ceiling, not a basecamp for bigger climbs. The tone for the year will be set before it begins - on 30 November, when Opec's ministers gather around the horseshoe table at the group's headquarters on Vienna's Helferstorferstrasse. Any cuts they agree will only be felt in physical markets from January. The end-November meeting is probably too soon for Opec to thrash out a meaningful deal. The one on the table, established in Algiers at the end of September, would
Also in this section
13 March 2026
Brussels is again weighing a cap on gas prices amid the Hormuz crisis, but the measure could backfire by deterring the LNG cargoes Europe urgently needs
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
