The IEA thinks a supply crunch is coming
Production will not keep pace with demand within a decade unless drillers start spending money again, the agency says
A dearth of upstream investment is threatening global energy security and could lead to a 16m b/d supply shortfall by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The result would be more oil-price volatility. "We may be in trouble in a few years," says the IEA's executive director Fatih Birol. The agency represents the interests of Western energy consumers but its warning echoes those from Opec and other producers. As oil prices crested in 2014, upstream investment reached a record high of $0.78 trillion, the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) says. Oil price weakness last year cut this to less than $0.6 trillion. The IEA expects another $140bn to go unspent in 2016. If so
Also in this section
19 January 2026
Newfound optimism is emerging that a dormant exploration frontier could become a strategic energy play and—whisper it quietly—Europe’s next offshore opportunity
16 January 2026
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
16 January 2026
The global maritime oil transport sector enters 2026 facing a rare convergence of crude oversupply, record newbuild deliveries and the potential easing of several geopolitical disruptions that have shaped trade flows since 2022
15 January 2026
Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026
