Liquid, not solid

Short of a full-on political decision to cut supply, the Middle East’s output will rise again this year

WILL they cut? Rumours about a move to rein in production by the Middle East’s big exporters put some strength into oil prices in January. On 16 February, the decision came in: producers will “freeze” their output. Quite what it will mean in practice is difficult to say. A range of indicators suggest the region’s Opec heavyweights – dominated, as ever, by Saudi Arabia – are doing precious little to decommission drilling rigs. Take the kingdom itself. Saudi Aramco’s oil and gas rig count, now at 212, will remain steady throughout 2016. This is already growth. In December, the kingdom had 129 oil-directed rigs in the field, according to Baker Hughes – 14 more than a year earlier. Across the Mi