Russian oil ministry sees a collapse in output
Russia has repeatedly defied outsiders’ forecasts of imminent oil decline. Now the energy ministry is the one preaching doom
Oil production in Russia will inevitably decline over the next two decades, says the country’s energy ministry. The only question is by how much, and the answer leaves a lot of wiggle room. Output could ease off by just 1.2%, the ministry says – or by almost half. In its worst-case scenario, the report says existing oilfields will be able to provide Russia with less than half of today’s production of about 10.7m barrels a day. At best, growth in production is only sustainable until 2020. After that, the report predicts production will contract from 1.2% to 46% depending on prices, taxation and whether sanctions over the Ukrainian conflict remain in place. The ministry modelled four scenarios
Also in this section
5 March 2026
Gas is a central pillar of Colombia’s energy system, but declining production poses a significant challenge, and LNG will be increasingly needed as a stopgap. A recent major offshore gas discovery offers hope, but policy improvements are also required, Camilo Morales, secretary general of Naturgas, the Colombian gas association, tells Petroleum Economist
4 March 2026
The continent’s inventories were already depleted before conflict erupted in the Middle East, causing prices to spike ahead of the crucial summer refilling season
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
