Outlook 2025: US oil production continues slow, steady growth

After hitting a high in 2019, output dropped during the Covid-19 pandemic, only to resume growth in 2021 and reach new highs. The US government expects 2.4% growth in 2025

In the eight years from 2016–24, US oil production (crude oil plus condensate from gas wells) has grown by 49.4%, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data (see Fig.1). Indeed, the numbers show US output averaged just 8.85m b/d in 2016, grew by 3.5m b/d for three years through 2019, lost 1m b/d during the pandemic of 2020–21 and then topped out at 13.22m b/d in 2024. This remarkable record is spurred by shale activity as well as technological improvements in recovery from conventional wells. Accordingly, the EIA predicts US production will gain another 320,000b/d during 2025. A closer look at the numbers reveals the bulk of the increase is coming from the Permian Basin of