Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Pemex CEO Victor Rodriguez at an event for the 87th anniversary of the NOC’s founding
Major upstream decline threatens Mexico’s energy security
Dire crude projections and heavy debt burden are weighing heavily on NOC Pemex
Mexico’s upstream outlook is not looking bright. Halfway into 2025, and against a backdrop of widening political violence, crude projections have already taken a tumble as the authorities contend with declining production, high debt and operational problems. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum originally set a 2025 domestic target of 1.8m b/d, but this was soon downgraded to 1.762m b/d. By April, output had slumped to 1.369m b/d. The most recent report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission from state oil and gas firm Pemex projects 1.58m b/d for the year. “The original projection of 1.8m bl/d for 2025 was always seen as optimistic, especially since the NOC last reached that level back
Also in this section
13 March 2026
Brussels is again weighing a cap on gas prices amid the Hormuz crisis, but the measure could backfire by deterring the LNG cargoes Europe urgently needs
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
