Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Pemex CEO Victor Rodriguez at an event for the 87th anniversary of the NOC’s founding
Major upstream decline threatens Mexico’s energy security
Dire crude projections and heavy debt burden are weighing heavily on NOC Pemex
Mexico’s upstream outlook is not looking bright. Halfway into 2025, and against a backdrop of widening political violence, crude projections have already taken a tumble as the authorities contend with declining production, high debt and operational problems. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum originally set a 2025 domestic target of 1.8m b/d, but this was soon downgraded to 1.762m b/d. By April, output had slumped to 1.369m b/d. The most recent report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission from state oil and gas firm Pemex projects 1.58m b/d for the year. “The original projection of 1.8m bl/d for 2025 was always seen as optimistic, especially since the NOC last reached that level back
Also in this section
12 December 2025
The federal government is working with Alberta to improve the country’s access to Asian markets and reduce dependence on the US, but there are challenges to their plans
12 December 2025
The latest edition of our annual Outlook publication, titled 'The shape of energy to come: Creating unique pathways and managing shifting alliances', is available now
11 December 2025
The removal of the ban on oil and gas exploration and an overhaul of the system sends all the right messages for energy security, affordability and sustainability
10 December 2025
The economic and environmental cost of the seven-year exploration ban will be felt long after its removal
