Outlook 2026: US onshore holds steady at sluggish rate as shale stagnates

As contradictory as it might seem, US oil output has continued to grow over the last several years, even as drilling in the shale plays has maintained a slow decline. This improbable dichotomy is a testimony to the industry’s technological prowess

It has been a frustrating year for US onshore operators. High operating costs, low oil prices and capital restraint have all contributed to a further slowing of activity over 2025, compared with a gradual decline in 2024. Onshore drilling for this year will total about 16,461 wells, down by 7.8% from last year’s 17,854 wells. Looking at the second half of 2025, the 8,065 onshore wells drilled will be down by 3.9% from the estimated 8,396 drilled in the first half.   Meanwhile, quite paradoxically, US oil production has continued to set records in 2025. The US produced an average of 13.235m b/d of oil in 2024, which was a new annual record. As of August 2025, that figure had gained another 55