Shell sees common trends in its transition scenarios

Certain themes dominate across the range of the major’s view of potential futures

Shell has reverted to three outlooks and extended the scope of its look into the future from 2070 out to 2100 in the latest round of its long-term projections, The Energy Transformation Scenarios, it released in mid-February.  Its three-scenario approach assumes each has a key driver—the economy, geopolitics and the environment—and it dubs them ‘Waves’, ‘Islands’ and ‘Sky 1.5’, respectively. This author approves; it is a similar approach to that which he first took working at thinktank the Canadian Energy Research Institute early this century. What to watch for Despite Shell’s new approach providing a wide spectrum of plausible futures, its scenarios team identified five trends common to ea