Unintended consequences of the energy transition must be considered
Outlook 2022: The energy transition – the pendulum swings, with unintended consequences
Change can bring volatility. And there is significant change ahead
It has long been true that economic growth and energy demand are linked. In 2020, we saw the pendulum swing one way—global GDP down by almost 5pc, and oil demand down by 9pc in the year, as economic output and mobility was constrained. This also led to a 5.8pc decline in global emissions, according to the IEA, the largest decline since the Second World War. It is clear the pendulum has swung back the other way this year—with Covid-19 restrictions easing, mobility and economic activity increased. The result is higher GDP but also higher demand for fossil fuels. This has and will result in higher emissions globally, with much of the ‘progress’ last year being undone. Despite renewable capacity
Also in this section
13 March 2026
Brussels is again weighing a cap on gas prices amid the Hormuz crisis, but the measure could backfire by deterring the LNG cargoes Europe urgently needs
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
