Global LNG overhang is not done yet

Gas prices may struggle to move significantly higher in 2020, despite a recent bounce

Rising gas prices and surging freight encouraged predictions that LNG’s bear run is over in the latter months of 2019. Even long-dormant US Henry Hub prices sprung to life on forecasts of colder-than-normal November weather. However, while seasonal gas demand recovery is likely, there is little sign short-term demand growth can fully absorb substantial new LNG supply due from the ramp-up of 2019 start-ups and new projects due in 2020. Moreover, weak year-to-date demand in 2019 has allowed consumer market inventory to build ahead of peak winter demand. So, while gas prices may strengthen seasonally, a step-change higher currently looks unlikely.  Freight jump  LNG freight rates have also surg