Operating models are the key to gas success

Global gas demand is certain to increase but exact predictions are impossible—so an end-to-end operating approach is required

Projections from some of the most reputed international energy organisations incorporate a 40-60pc growth in global gas demand by 2040, from c.3,750bn m³ today, to anywhere from 5,400 to 6,000bn m³.  But what if those projections fall short of the true potential for gas growth? At EY, we have tested the numbers in our Fueling the Future initiative, to help our clients understand the opportunities in the energy future in a quantitative way. Global gas demand in our baseline scenario will be 5,800bn m³ by 2040, towards the higher end of the consensus. At a conservative 5pc annual decline rate, that means 4,450bn m³ of new gas supply will be needed by 2040, around 120pc of the current supply ba