Record prices reflect Europe’s winter gas fears
It is difficult to predict just how the continent’s supply and demand will balance
The benchmark Ice TTF front-month European gas contract crested a new record high above €225/MWh ($227/MWh) in mid-August, having previously shied away from €200/MWh in early March’s previous peak, with over-the-counter (OTC) prices following suit (see Fig.1). The eye-watering price levels are testament to the fear and uncertainty over how Europe might cope if Russia cuts supply further—a bellicose statement by Russia’s Gazprom was the catalyst for the latest price spike. But it may also be a reflection of a traded gas market that has become both less liquid, therefore amplifying price moves, and more prone to moving on rumour rather than fundamentals.

Also in this section
11 February 2025
Improving compliance among the group and wider group is offset by production increases in outliers Libya, Venezuela and Iran
10 February 2025
The country wants to kickstart its upstream but first needs to persuade investors to foot the bill
10 February 2025
The February 2025 issue of Petroleum Economist is out now!
7 February 2025
The history of tin production and prices offers a preview of the future oil market. If correct, $35/bl could become the new normal for crude for several years without further OPEC+ intervention