Why geopolitics still matter to oil

Trump might not bring more war to the Middle East, but as fundamentals tighten the market is ready to trade such risks

Even before the civil war, Syria's oil output was hardly decisive for global markets. Six years on, it is truly a rounding error in terms of world supply balances: production has dropped from more than 400,000 barrels a day to less than 30,000 b/d. Exports have ceased. No, the war in Syria is not, as internet conspiracy theorists think, about pipelines through the country. So why did oil prices rise sharply after the US fired 59 Tomahawk missiles at an airbase in Syria on 7 April? After two and a half years of shrugging its shoulders at conflict in Libya, northern Iraq and Yemen, the reaction to the Syria bombing suggests that the oil market is awaking again to geopolitics. It's a long way f