Opec and oil market dynamics
Opec's goal of defending high oil prices may suit some members in the short run, but its long-term impacts could be damaging
Since its historic agreement in November 2016, Opec's efforts to manage the oil market have shown signs of success: key benchmarks are in backwardation, speculative positioning has been at record length and a floor price of $60 a barrel has been defended. Strong Opec compliance—both voluntarily (Saudi Arabia) and involuntarily (Venezuela)—has been supported by stronger-than-expected demand growth. By Opec's own measure of success, its target of reducing five-year commercial OECD inventories has been largely met (currently between 30-50m barrels above five-year average). As Opec meets in June to review its progress, it has already signalled its dissatisfaction with using the five-year average
Also in this section
13 March 2026
Brussels is again weighing a cap on gas prices amid the Hormuz crisis, but the measure could backfire by deterring the LNG cargoes Europe urgently needs
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
