Letter from the Middle East: Opec balances Russia and the West

The cartel is happy to wait for further developments before committing to more drastic action

US president Joe Biden seems to have come away from his first diplomatic visit to Saudi Arabia in July empty-handed, with the Opec+ alliance in early August swiftly deciding on only a small rise in output targets from September. But the current US administration should not have expected anything different. The announced production increase by Opec+ of 100,000bl/d is so small it seems cosmetic at best and insulting at worst. And the situation is exacerbated by the fact that supply constraints mean the actual physical increment will be more like 50,000-60,000bl/d—even assuming Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq make full use of their extra allowances. In contrast, a briefing by the US’s Middle Eas