Under Saudi Arabia’s transformative Vision 2030 strategy, Riyadh has become a city of grand ambition. But in recent months, it has also become a city of diplomacy—where the world’s most pressing energy questions and geopolitical issues intersect in high-stakes negotiations.
Once content to influence the global order from behind palace walls or in the chambers of OPEC, Saudi Arabia now appears to be reimagining its capital as a 21st-century Geneva: a neutral venue for great power dialogue and a convening space for oil diplomacy, security arrangements and strategic energy partnerships.
In the past few weeks alone, three events have underscored Riyadh’s newfound centrality.
First came a round of talks between senior officials from the US and Russia, aimed at exploring the contours of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. The Kingdom, with its residual trust on both sides, provided the setting for the first direct US-Russia diplomatic engagement of this scale since early 2022.
Peace in Ukraine, however elusive, could lead to a resumption of Russian energy supplies to Western markets, removing one of the big issues that has bedevilled global energy since the invasion in February 2022.
While nothing concrete emerged from the US-Russia meetings in February, and ceasefire proposals have come and gone, the fact that both parties agreed to sit across the table in Riyadh speaks volumes about Saudi Arabia’s rising stock as a geopolitical broker.
A few weeks later, just as financial markets were reacting to President Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, came the unexpected outcome of the latest OPEC+ meeting. After months of discipline in supply restraint, the group—under Saudi chairmanship—opted to reintroduce a bigger-than-expected volume onto global crude markets.
The move caught many analysts off guard. They had been questioning whether market fundamentals justified a continuation of the policy of gradually returning oil in modest monthly increments. Instead, after a video conference coordinated from Riyadh, the OPEC+ ‘Group of 8’ decided to put a full quarter’s worth of supply back on the market in one surge, from May.
The move reflected Saudi determination to keep oil prices within a politically sustainable band: high enough to support fiscal plans and keep producers engaged, but not so high as to trigger demand destruction or fuel inflation in key consuming countries.
For Riyadh, this was more than a technical oil market adjustment. It was a message: Saudi Arabia remains the indispensable power in global hydrocarbons and is willing to use that power to keep over-producers—especially Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan—in line.
Nuclear ambition
A third significant event followed in the form of an official visit by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. At the conclusion of his meetings in Riyadh, a joint statement revealed a preliminary agreement for the US to facilitate Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to develop a domestic civil nuclear programme.
Long a sensitive subject in US-Saudi relations, the nuclear file has emerged as a key litmus test for the evolving nature of the bilateral energy partnership. This time, real progress was made. American nuclear firms could play a role in providing fuel cycle services and reactor technology, in exchange for Saudi commitments to international safeguards. Though details remain scant—a memorandum of understanding is still being prepared for signature at a later date—the direction is clear: Washington and Riyadh are recalibrating their energy ties to encompass not just oil, but the future architecture of energy itself.
Taken together, these three developments suggest a broader transformation in Saudi foreign policy: from petrostate state to strategic platform. In the process, energy is once again the lever of influence.
For the Kingdom, this is a moment of opportunity. The oil market is structurally tighter than it was a decade ago. Spare capacity is concentrated in fewer hands. Western governments are increasingly preoccupied with the geopolitics of energy security. And Russia’s current pariah status, combined with China’s growing appetite for Middle Eastern hydrocarbons, means Riyadh now sits at the intersection of multiple supply chains and strategic dependencies.
There is a fourth act still to come. Sometime in May, Trump is expected to return to the Middle East on high-profile visit, with Riyadh at the centre of the itinerary. The US president is popular in Saudi Arabia, particularly for his transactional approach to foreign policy and his unabashed emphasis on oil as a tool of American power. In Riyadh, there is much speculation about further deals on energy cooperation, defence and a possible break-through resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.
For energy markets, this could matter in several ways. Trump has made no secret of his desire to push oil prices down in pursuit of his election pledges of lower gasoline prices. This has become all the more pressing in the anticipated surge in domestic US inflation as a result of global tariff wars, particularly against China.
Riyadh, for its part, knows how to play this game. It has done so with successive administrations. But under Trump, the emphasis may shift from multilateral dialogue to bilateral deal-making—precisely the kind of diplomacy that has defined the city’s recent resurgence.
What is striking about all this is the degree to which Riyadh is actively shaping, rather than merely reacting to, the global energy conversation. Under the stewardship of Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Kingdom seems to be shifting from a policy of cautious market balancing to one of calibrated signalling and strategic positioning.
Barrels and beyond
Whether adjusting supply, coordinating within the OPEC+ Group of 8, or striking new partnerships, Saudi Arabia is once again reminding the world that its influence extends far beyond the barrels it pumps.
The Kingdom’s recent rapprochement with long-time enemy Iran has also given it a say in the other big geopolitical play of the day—the determination of the US to put an end to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme. Saudi Arabia—with the issue of Israeli normalisation still up for grabs—will also expect a role at the top table in any talks to resolve the intractable Palestinian question.
Of course, there are limits. Riyadh’s emergence as a global diplomatic capital is still nascent. Its ambitions in nuclear energy face significant regulatory and political hurdles in Washington. Its role in OPEC+ assumes continued coordination with Moscow. And it is facing fiscal and trade balance pressures in the domestic economy that is meant to fund Vision 2030, still principally through oil revenues.
But for now, the city is enjoying a moment of geopolitical relevance—and energy remains the thread that ties it all together. In a world increasingly defined by fragmented supply chains, contested power and uncertainty over the energy transition, Riyadh has found a familiar technique: the art of the deal.
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