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The EU’s electric dreams
The European Commission’s response to the Middle East crisis is to double down on its transition strategy, with plans for a new target on electrification
Drone power: Ukraine escalates its war on Russian oil
Sustained strikes on ports, terminals and refineries are testing the resilience of Russia’s oil export system, yet rapid repairs, rerouting and surging prices mean the campaign has yet to deliver a decisive blow
Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Letter from the UAE: The GCC and Iran – No easy way out
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
China’s secure energy transition
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
Do not politicise a geopolitical crisis – Ydreos
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has exposed weakness in the global energy system and reignited debate over security of supply, but it should not be used to justify an accelerated shift away from fossil fuels, says the secretary general of the IGU
A bigger and longer crisis
Attacks on key oil and LNG assets across the Gulf mean a prolonged supply disruption, with damage to Qatar’s export capacity undermining confidence in the global gas system
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Letter from Dubai: A safe haven under fire
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
Trump’s bid to reshape the global energy order
From Venezuela to Hormuz, the US—backed by the most powerful military force ever assembled—is redrawing not only oil and gas flows but also the global balance of energy power
A compressor station on the Power of Siberia pipeline
Politics
Michael Bradshaw
25 September 2025
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States, markets and the geopolitics of gas

Geopolitics is just as significant as market factors or climate action in shaping the future role of gas

The relationship between states and markets—and the impact of this relationship within the context of critical uncertainty about the future of fossil fuels—is a common thread running through the gas sector. The same day that US President Donald Trump described climate change as the “greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world”, at the UN General Assembly in New York, the UN Environment Programme published its latest Production Gap report. The report concludes that “governments plan to produce about more than double (120%) the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5C, and 77% more than would be consistent with 2C”. 100–150bcm – Pote

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