A tale of two forecasts
Both the IEA and Opec agree global oil demand will increase in 2017. Supplies are trickier to figure out
While neither the International Energy Agency (IEA) nor Opec proved particularly successful at forecasting oil supply and demand trends in 2016 they agree on two things: economic growth will drive global oil consumption higher in 2017 and the call on Opec is increasing. Now Opec has agreed a deal to curb output by 1.2m barrels a day from January, so if the agencies are right the market will tighten. Both Opec and the IEA expect global economic growth to average around 3% in 2017, roughly in line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s estimate for 2016. That will yield oil-consumption growth of 1.2m b/d, about the same as in 2016. But in absolute terms, their baselines still differ. The
Also in this section
16 April 2026
Demand for oil is falling because supply cannot meet it, not because it is no longer required
16 April 2026
The continent has an immediate opportunity to make the most of its energy resources by capturing gas that is currently slipping away
15 April 2026
The continent is seeing political pushback to climate plans, corporate reassessment of transition goals and rising supply risk in a fractured global order
15 April 2026
The Middle East energy crisis may turn out to be pivotal to the industry’s long-term expansion, but significant challenges still stand in its way
