Trump is bullish for oil
The market should start pricing in the mounting geopolitical risks
Opec's cuts and tight oil's response have dominated market rhetoric since November. But Donald Trump's presidency and its capacity to upturn geopolitics are now at least as significant for price direction. No wonder the smart money on Wall Street has been piling into crude. Most of oil's price slumps of the past 45 years ended with a geopolitical crisis. Before each, the market assumed the world was amply supplied, and would be indefinitely - and ignored the disruptive potential of politics. This is true again now. You can buy a barrel of oil for delivery in December 2019 for $56.47 a barrel, or about $0.40 less than the near-term contract on the Intercontinental Exchange. Baked into this fu
Also in this section
16 April 2026
Demand for oil is falling because supply cannot meet it, not because it is no longer required
16 April 2026
The continent has an immediate opportunity to make the most of its energy resources by capturing gas that is currently slipping away
15 April 2026
The continent is seeing political pushback to climate plans, corporate reassessment of transition goals and rising supply risk in a fractured global order
15 April 2026
The Middle East energy crisis may turn out to be pivotal to the industry’s long-term expansion, but significant challenges still stand in its way
