What will Libya do?
The country's output is a wildcard that could ruin Opec's best-laid plans
Libyan oil production has tripled since September, when the Tobruk government's forces captured key oil ports in the Sirte basin. Exempt from the Opec cuts agreed in November, Libya could add much more supply in the coming months-but growth will depend on the country's civil conflict. Further disruptions are possible too. Output in early January was around 0.7m barrels a day, compared with just 290,000 b/d in August. The sharp rise was possible only after the Libyan National Army (LNA) ousted a militia from the key Sirte basin oil ports of Es-Sider (capacity 447,000 b/d), Ras Lanuf (220,000 b/d) and Zueitina (200,000 b/d) and turned over the facilities to National Oil Company (NOC). Mustafa
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