Where next in Europe’s diesel crisis?
The fate of the continent’s supply crunch may lie elsewhere—in China, the Middle East and Russia
Europe’s diesel deficit has provided the only credible challenger to gas as the centrepiece of the continent’s energy crisis this year. Northwest Europe diesel cracks averaged $9/bl in 2021 and have averaged $40/bl so far this year—an increase of 420pc. But what has been driving the rally? And what is the outlook for European diesel pricing into 2023? Global capacity In a letter to his country’s oil executives this summer, US president Joe Biden warned the tightness in the world’s refining capacity was a “global challenge and global concern”. Biden’s words reflected the fact that c.3.5mn bl/d of distillation capacity had been shut down since the pandemic, resulting in a net decline after new
Also in this section
13 March 2026
Brussels is again weighing a cap on gas prices amid the Hormuz crisis, but the measure could backfire by deterring the LNG cargoes Europe urgently needs
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy






