Where next in Europe’s diesel crisis?

The fate of the continent’s supply crunch may lie elsewhere—in China, the Middle East and Russia

Europe’s diesel deficit has provided the only credible challenger to gas as the centrepiece of the continent’s energy crisis this year. Northwest Europe diesel cracks averaged $9/bl in 2021 and have averaged $40/bl so far this year—an increase of 420pc. But what has been driving the rally? And what is the outlook for European diesel pricing into 2023? Global capacity In a letter to his country’s oil executives this summer, US president Joe Biden warned the tightness in the world’s refining capacity was a “global challenge and global concern”. Biden’s words reflected the fact that c.3.5mn bl/d of distillation capacity had been shut down since the pandemic, resulting in a net decline after new