Crude market wrestles with supply-demand disconnect

Near-term economic concerns and relative supply strength postpone oil’s recovery narrative

The message from major forecasters is clear: global oil demand is set to expand faster than previously expected this year. The IEA now sees oil demand growth of 2.2mn bl/d in 2023, some 200,000bl/d higher than its report in April, taking overall demand to 102mn bl/d, supported by China’s improving mobility. In fact, the IEA has been raising demand growth projections every month since last November. Other top forecasters, such as Goldman Sachs, have also steadily increased their demand forecasts. But the oil market needs much more convincing. “These demand upgrades reflect that strong emerging market and global services demand continue to outpace weaker developed market and manufacturing envi