Iran and Libya supply fortunes highlight market risks
The impact from Libya’s lost barrels versus the threats to Iranian supply highlight the type of buffer in the oil market and the demand implications
An Israeli attack on Iranian export facilities could mean the loss of around 1.5m bl of medium and heavy sour crude currently going mainly to China. These barrels will be hard to replace compared with Libyan oil, as global light sweet supplies remain abundant. OPEC+ could make up the loss but is unlikely to do so, as the group is interested in supporting prices. China’s inability to easily replace discounted Iranian barrels could also jeopardise its economic recovery. The oil market has demonstrated resilience this year, despite several supply disruptions. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), an average of 1.1m b/d of production was offline in the first eight months
Also in this section
17 June 2025
Israel’s attack on Iran caught oil firms with low inventories due to their efforts to protect themselves from falling prices, creating a perfect storm
17 June 2025
Sound development planning is essential in this diverse and rapidly evolving region
16 June 2025
The launch of the much-needed yet oft-delayed Africa Energy Bank remains shrouded in questions and funding constraints, but its potential is clear
16 June 2025
BP and partners have reached a $2.9b FID on a new phase at Shah Deniz, but slow progress on other gas projects is attributed to a lack of European support
