A new oil flows playbook
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
For much of the past few years, oil markets have developed a kind of resilience to sanctions. Barrels are restricted, discounts widen and flows eventually re-route. Intermediaries change, paperwork evolves and crude continues to find a home. That assumption has shaped pricing behaviour since 2022 and explains why new sanctions often provoke only a brief reaction particularly post-implementation. As 2026 begins, that assumption is being tested. The constraint in the system is no longer the financial sanction, but the infrastructure that allows sanctioned trade to function. Physical interventions in the Atlantic Basin by Western security forces, refusal of entry into local waters and the clari
Also in this section
6 March 2026
The March 2026 issue of Petroleum Economist is out now!
6 March 2026
After Europe’s rapid buildout of floating LNG import capacity, Exmar CEO Carl-Antoine Saverys says future growth in floating gas infrastructure will increasingly be driven by developing markets as lower prices, rising energy demand and the need to replace coal unlock new opportunities for unconventional and tailor-made solutions
5 March 2026
Gas is a central pillar of Colombia’s energy system, but declining production poses a significant challenge, and LNG will be increasingly needed as a stopgap. A recent major offshore gas discovery offers hope, but policy improvements are also required, Camilo Morales, secretary general of Naturgas, the Colombian gas association, tells Petroleum Economist
4 March 2026
The continent’s inventories were already depleted before conflict erupted in the Middle East, causing prices to spike ahead of the crucial summer refilling season






