Oil in 2026: Five factors to watch
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
The Middle East and the Americas will determine the course of oil supply this year, while China’s strategic purchases, the fate of sanctioned barrels and the incessant geopolitical swings will provide uncertainty on both sides of the supply-demand ledger. Petroleum Economist sees Brent oil prices averaging around $63/bl in 2026, remaining under pressure early on before seeing some upside later in the year. 1. American oil muscle The IEA believes global oil supply will rise by 2.5m b/d in 2026 after growth of 3m b/d in 2025. The reasoning is that non-OPEC+ producers add 1.3m b/d in 2026, bolstered by rising output from the Americas quintet of the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. Whi
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