African oil production is expected to fall steadily to 2030
Africa's upstream to feel transition squeeze
The continent’s oil production will decline in the 2020s while gas production will increase before starting to slip, according to the IEA
African crude output will decline this decade while gas production will make short-term gains before also starting to fall, according to the IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook 2022. The agency’s projections are based on a “sustainable Africa scenario”, in which the continent meets all of its energy-related development goals—including universal access to power by 2030 and the various national net-zero pledges and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals—and the rest of the world follows suit. But the IEA admits that “making this scenario a reality is a formidable task”. Export dependency The prospects for Africa’s oil production “hinge primarily on exports”, the IEA emphasises, and so are “gre
Also in this section
28 April 2026
Oil traders warning of $200/bl oil are wrong, and the market should be wary of proclamations that the impact of the oil shortage has only begun to be felt and a that a ‘harsh adjustment’ is coming—even for industrialised nations
28 April 2026
Restoring supply from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq involves complexities far beyond simply adjusting operational controls
28 April 2026
Datacentres will guzzle power at a ferocious rate, but the impact on wider energy markets will be far more complex than previously thought
28 April 2026
The key energy player faces balancing regional routes, political complexities, and creating a clear strategic vision for energy security
