Adnoc headquarters in Abu Dhabi
UAE could be big winner from Aramco U-turn
Saudi Arabia’s decision not to expand capacity target seen as bolstering UAE’s position within OPEC+
The UAE is set to fortify its influence within OPEC+ and state-run Adnoc is expected to clinch a bigger oil market share after Saudi Arabia decided to halt NOC Saudi Aramco’s plan to boost its maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) to 13m b/d by 2027. Before this reversal, the world’s biggest oil exporter was betting on an uptick in global demand that would have justified its additional 1m b/d of capacity by 2027. Saudi Arabia’s change of strategy means that, while it still maintains its position as the ultimate swing producer—bringing on and taking off barrels at short notice to manage the market—the gap between it and the UAE is set to narrow, potentially altering market power dynamics between
Also in this section
16 April 2026
Demand for oil is falling because supply cannot meet it, not because it is no longer required
16 April 2026
The continent has an immediate opportunity to make the most of its energy resources by capturing gas that is currently slipping away
15 April 2026
The continent is seeing political pushback to climate plans, corporate reassessment of transition goals and rising supply risk in a fractured global order
15 April 2026
The Middle East energy crisis may turn out to be pivotal to the industry’s long-term expansion, but significant challenges still stand in its way
