Canada's oil growth optimism

Companies are bullish despite combined effect of market volatility, tariff threats, regulatory issues and midstream constraints

Canada's oil production is set for healthy but modest growth in 2026, with major producers anticipating an increase of 4–6% despite weakening prices. The country is facing challenges that include a volatile market, an evolving trade policy due to US tariff threats, environmental and Indigenous regulatory dynamics, and a pipeline expansion that is lagging output increases. Major Canadian oil companies have issued bullish forecasts for this year, signalling confidence in near-term growth. However, the emphasis remains on incremental expansion of current assets rather than new megaprojects. Compared with shale and other onshore and offshore producers, oilsands companies derive their optimism fr