Russia’s implausible gas strategy

The country may have the resources, but sanctions and a lack of market access make its gas ambitions look very questionable

Russia approved a comprehensive new 2050 energy strategy in April, targeting significant growth in gas production and exports while seeking to maintain stable oil production. While energy strategies tend to be more aspirational than realistic, Moscow’s gas ambitions lack credibility—even without the added challenges posed by Western sanctions. The Russian government had been preparing its latest long-term energy strategy for over two years, with delays attributed to the highly volatile macroeconomic conditions resulting from sanctions and other fallout from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. In the base case, ‘inertial’, scenario of the plan, published on 14 April, gas output is projected to rise