How much Iranian oil will be lost if Trump scraps the JCPOA?

The range of estimates is wide and the White House isn’t giving much thought to what happens next

President Donald Trump will probably ditch the Iran nuclear deal on 12 May—on that, most everyone seems to agree. But consensus over the impact on oil supply is lacking. More than 1m barrels a day of supply could be lost over the next 18 months. Worse still, the White House might not really have a plan. At stake are US sanctions waivers that have kept a renewed embargo at bay. Trump extended these waivers in January but said he wouldn't renew them again in May unless the European Union and Congress fix parts of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that he doesn't like. The UK, France and Germany, the so-called E3, want to keep the deal running, and so have been trying to find some