IEA and Opec out of step on long-term perspective

The Paris-based intergovernmental organisation has its eyes firmly on a net-zero future. Opec not so much

Opec and the IEA, the world’s two most prominent energy forecasting organisations, released their most recent rounds of long-term outlooks in September and October respectively. But, whereas the former forecasts little dramatic change beyond commitments already made, three-quarters of the IEA’s modelling is focused on more radical scenarios. The Reference Case, and the sensitivity cases based on it, in Opec’s World Oil Outlook 2021 are planted firmly in a future that does not diverge dramatically from the past. Opec secretary general Mohammed Barkindo laid bare how out of step his organisation’s expectations are with ambitions for a significantly lower carbon future in the foreword to the re