The energy stakes of Turkey’s heated presidential election

Besides fraying democracy, different visions for Turkey as a regional gas hub hang in the balance in a fateful election in May

Polls in Turkey suggest a slim lead for joint opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is running to unseat strongman populist Recep Tayyip Erdogan after two decades in power. Whatever the results, Turkey’s energy clout will likely continue to grow, and the next government will seek to enhance its status as a regional gas hub feeding Europe. Yet there are nuances: most importantly, perhaps, how big a role Russia will play in pursuing these ambitions. “Putin and Erdogan are both confronting political challenges and that does not create the circumstances in which to make pragmatic decisions about energy policy,” says Elizabeth Stephens, managing director of UK-based consultancy Geopolitica