Projectiles fired by Iran are seen in the sky above Tel Aviv
Oil cannot escape Mideast conflict forever
Markets have seen no material disruption from the war so far, but as the fighting goes on it is a matter of when, not if
An unexpected feature of the year-long war in the Middle East is that oil supplies have not been materially disrupted. There have been marginal disruptions, including the dozens of attacks staged by Iran-allied Houthi forces on Red Sea oil shipping, and Israel’s destruction of a Houthi-controlled fuel terminal at the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. But the 20m b/d flow of oil exports from the Mideast Gulf to world markets has continued unabated, with no major blow to energy security or the global economy. In lieu of the war’s end, however, that condition is unlikely to last much longer. After all, oil has come into the crosshairs in nearly every war during the past 100 years, ever since it became
Also in this section
22 April 2026
The failure of OMV Petrom’s keenly watched exploration campaign at Bulgaria’s Han Asparuh block highlights the Black Sea’s uneven track record, despite major successes like Neptun Deep and Sakarya
22 April 2026
Sustained strikes on ports, terminals and refineries are testing the resilience of Russia’s oil export system, yet rapid repairs, rerouting and surging prices mean the campaign has yet to deliver a decisive blow
21 April 2026
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
21 April 2026
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
