Outlook 2024: Welcome to the geopolitical rollercoaster

Oil and gas are once again being weaponised

The geopolitics of energy are not what they used to be: they’re getting much “worse”. And also much “better”. Worse, because the risks are getting more heated than they have in decades. But also better, because the markets’ resilience and ability to weather geopolitical turmoil have never been greater. The reasons for the risk proliferation are many. Let me point out three. First, the rise of what Ian Bremmer calls the “G-Zero” world: the decreasing ability and/or willingness of the US to serve as the world’s policeman, the Sino-American rivalry and the mounting tensions between the West and the Rest. After the 1973 Arab oil embargo, of which we just marked the 50th anniversary, the world se