OPEC and the evolving global oil order

The UAE’s exit from the alliance marks a decisive step towards a world in which oil markets are shaped less by collective management and more by national strategy

The oil market may have barely flinched, but the shockwaves felt from OPEC headquarters in Vienna to OPEC’s de facto leadership in Riyadh will reverberate for some time to come. The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC was five years in the making, but given its important role in the group, it still smacked of surprise.  The UAE is now more resolutely following nationalist goals, but OPEC’s collective management was arguably always about self-interest. The nature of oil-producing alliances had shifted from OPEC and IOCs, where the UAE had a key role, to OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to a loosely defined big three of US/Saudi Arabia/Russia The UAE had gone from core OPEC member to Saudi Arab