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The illusion of supply: Rethinking energy security when oil cannot move
Demand for oil is falling because supply cannot meet it, not because it is no longer required
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Marine One flies US President George W. Bush over an oil refinery devastated by Hurricane Ike in 2008
Downstream Markets
Philip K. Verleger
6 August 2025
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A third distillate disruption

Diesel market disruptions have propelled crude prices above $100/bl twice in this century, and now oil teeters on the brink of another crude quality crisis

The combination of a glut of low-distillate-yield crudes, efforts by oil-exporting nations to boost prices, refinery shutdowns, and ill-conceived government policies threatens to push prices for diesel and low-sulphur distillates to record or near-record levels. The trade war instigated by the US will exacerbate market tightness by diverting key oil supplies from sophisticated refineries in the US, while Asian refineries purchase distillate-poor US crude to appease President Donald Trump’s trade hawks. To meet rising demand for these products, refiners will bid up low-sulphur, distillate-rich crudes such as Nigeria’s Bonny Light. The record or near-record production of US crude oils with low

Also in this section
The illusion of supply: Rethinking energy security when oil cannot move
16 April 2026
Demand for oil is falling because supply cannot meet it, not because it is no longer required
Letter on Africa: Cutting methane can ease Africa’s energy crunch
Opinion
16 April 2026
The continent has an immediate opportunity to make the most of its energy resources by capturing gas that is currently slipping away
Letter from Europe: Energy transition meets reality
Opinion
15 April 2026
The continent is seeing political pushback to climate plans, corporate reassessment of transition goals and rising supply risk in a fractured global order
Is this nuclear power’s big moment?
15 April 2026
The Middle East energy crisis may turn out to be pivotal to the industry’s long-term expansion, but significant challenges still stand in its way

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