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Downstream Markets
Philip K. Verleger
6 August 2025
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A third distillate disruption

Diesel market disruptions have propelled crude prices above $100/bl twice in this century, and now oil teeters on the brink of another crude quality crisis

The combination of a glut of low-distillate-yield crudes, efforts by oil-exporting nations to boost prices, refinery shutdowns, and ill-conceived government policies threatens to push prices for diesel and low-sulphur distillates to record or near-record levels. The trade war instigated by the US will exacerbate market tightness by diverting key oil supplies from sophisticated refineries in the US, while Asian refineries purchase distillate-poor US crude to appease President Donald Trump’s trade hawks. To meet rising demand for these products, refiners will bid up low-sulphur, distillate-rich crudes such as Nigeria’s Bonny Light. The record or near-record production of US crude oils with low

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Countries in the region are turning to the cleaner-burning fuel for power generation, driving demand for imports

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