The oil market has a forecasting problem
Predicting oil production growth is a perilous task at best. Surging US oil output isn’t helping
Back in November, when Opec's ministers sat down in Vienna to assess the market and plot their strategy to rebalance supply and demand, their data brought good news. Non-Opec supply in 2018 would rise by just 870,000 barrels a day, said the monthly oil-market report from the group's secretariat, but global consumption would increase by 1.53m b/d. Demand for Opec's own oil would reach 33.4m b/d in 2018—almost 800,000 b/d more than the group was producing. Another heave on the cuts would clear the stock overhang and bring supply and demand into balance. Three months of surging tight oil output later and the outlook, for Opec and the market, has changed. So, once again, have the data—and the re

Also in this section
6 February 2025
Policy initiatives will take time to reverse declining output, and restoring investor confidence is far from certain
6 February 2025
This premier event is poised to address the evolving technology and investment demands of North America’s thriving chemical and pharmaceutical sectors
5 February 2025
Growing appetite for LNG reinvigorates discussions between China and Myanmar, but civil war may prevent talk becoming action
5 February 2025
With new capacity, buyers must navigate sanctioned Russian crude, a return to traditional OPEC barrels and diversity of supply