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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Mideast plans big spending on gas to meet demand
The region’s gas producers are investing heavily in the fuel in order to satisfy burgeoning demand resulting from economic growth and a shift to cleaner fuels
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
How Hormuz chokehold threatens LNG buyers
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
Letter from the Middle East: Aramco provides big global gas reveal
The Saudi energy leader’s announcement of first production at Jafurah and the launch of operations at the Tanajib Gas Plant marks a turning point not just for the company, but for the world’s energy landscape
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
OPEC+’s cohesive restraint
The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
Letter from Saudi Arabia: Big oil meets big shovel
As Saudi Arabia pushes mining as a new pillar of its economy, Saudi Aramco is positioning itself at the intersection of hydrocarbons, minerals and industrial policy
Opec Saudi Arabia Donald Trump Iran
Derek Brower
Vienna
19 June 2018
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Trump’s spectre looms over tense Opec meeting

Russia and Saudi Arabia plan to raise supply. The move will please the US but make for a rocky summit this week

The Opec+ deal is all but done. A new version may be crafted here in Vienna over the next few days, but the cuts that began at the start of January 2017 and wiped out the global stock excess have run their course. Any new agreement will be designed to preserve a semblance of unity. But more oil is coming—that's been clear since Russia's Vladimir Putin said the oil-price rally had gone too far . Saudi Arabia has reluctantly accepted this. The only questions are how much Opec+ will add and when; whether it will be done officially or on the quiet; and whether it will be enough to compensate for mounting losses elsewhere, or to satisfy Donald Trump. His shadow will hang over the 22 June meeting

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