Opposing forces will affect oil market balance
Sluggish demand growth may be matched by an almost as equally anaemic lift in output
The oil market in 2020 will, in our view, be dominated by three key themes—the global economic slowdown, the ongoing drop in momentum in the US shale industry, and the sticky non-Opec production growth. These are opposing forces with material impact on the oil market balance for 2020. Oil demand worries are not going away. The global economic slowdown combined with the US-China tariff war clearly hit oil demand growth. In light of this, we expect oil demand to grow by 0.8mn bl/d year-on-year in 2019, compared to 5-year average growth of 1.5mn bl/d year-on-year. The growth rate is almost halved, demonstrating the impact of the economic slowdown. Our expectation is that the global economic s
Also in this section
23 January 2026
A strategic pivot away from Russian crude in recent weeks tees up the possibility of improved US-India trade relations
23 January 2026
The signing of a deal with a TotalEnergies-led consortium to explore for gas in a block adjoining Israel’s maritime area may breathe new life into the country’s gas ambitions
22 January 2026
As Saudi Arabia pushes mining as a new pillar of its economy, Saudi Aramco is positioning itself at the intersection of hydrocarbons, minerals and industrial policy
22 January 2026
New long-term deal is latest addition to country’s rapidly evolving supply portfolio as it eyes role as regional gas hub
