No foregone conclusions for OPEC+

OPEC+ has huge amounts of spare capacity amid a tightening market, but nothing can be taken for granted given unclear economic trajectories and geopolitical unrest

Oil prices remain stuck in a narrow range despite geopolitical tensions, and while the upcoming OPEC+ meeting might change that, it might not.  Since OPEC+ ministers met virtually at the end of November 2023, oil prices increased from around $80/bl to close to $90/bl in mid-April before falling back and remaining in a narrow range. Although Iran has become more directly involved in the Middle East conflict, prices have not really spiked.   This contradicts the fashionable view among some excitable members of the analyst community that $100/bl oil was only a matter of time. With economies around the world emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic and with ongoing problems in global supply chains—in