Oil market imbalances divide major energy agencies

OPEC and IEA split on oil demand outlook and even diverge on supply risks, with huge implications for market sentiment

The IEA appears to be factoring in negative sentiment around consumption into its annual outlook, while OPEC seems to be more about extrapolating from the here and now. Given the global economic uncertainty, the oil market appears to be erring towards the IEA’s view, but with a focus on trade tensions with China having somewhat shifted to trade deals in the Middle East, the chasm between the two forecasting agencies may still narrow. The latest monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC paint divergent pictures of 2025 and 2026. While both acknowledge the growing share of non-OECD demand, they differ in overall supply growth forecast, future supply dynamics and the pace of the energy t